President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s declaration that he is “ready” to meet Vladimir Putin is a calculated risk of immense proportions. The decision involves weighing the potential for a historic peace agreement against the danger of being outmaneuvered by a seasoned adversary or appearing weak to a domestic audience.
The potential reward is monumental: an end to the bloodshed and the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty. A successful negotiation could solidify Zelenskyy’s place in history as the leader who saved his nation. This upside makes the risk worth taking, especially with the backing of a U.S.-led diplomatic initiative.
The risks, however, are severe. A failed summit could demoralize the Ukrainian people and be spun by Moscow as evidence of Kyiv’s intransigence. Furthermore, entering a negotiation on territory, even with the best intentions, opens the door to domestic criticism that he is preparing to make unacceptable concessions.
Zelenskyy’s calculation likely rests on his confidence in his own negotiating skills and the strength of the international support behind him. By separating the territorial issue for his direct talk with Putin from the security guarantees being worked on by allies, he is attempting to mitigate the risk and structure the negotiation in the most favorable way possible.