A recent poll indicates that Australians are bracing for China’s dominance on the global stage by 2035, while simultaneously experiencing a significant erosion of trust in the United States. These findings highlight a profound shift in Australia’s geopolitical expectations.
Only 36% of Australians now trust the US to act responsibly on the world stage, marking a substantial 20-point drop from the previous year and the lowest figure recorded since the think tank began its surveys in 2005. This decline in confidence is particularly evident regarding the current US President’s foreign policy approach, which garners significantly less faith than that of his predecessor. Conversely, confidence in the Chinese leader saw a modest increase, resulting in an even split among Australians regarding the reliability of the two leaders.
In a notable shift, Australians are now equally likely to view China as an economic collaborator as they are a security concern, marking a first since 2020. However, a significant proportion of the populace continues to distrust China and anticipates it becoming a military threat to Australia within the next two decades. Despite the waning trust in the US, a majority of Australians (63%) still believe the US would defend them if attacked, albeit a lower figure than in recent years.
This survey suggests a nuanced public perspective where the stability of the US alliance is maintained, even as trust in its current leadership falters due to perceived “shocking” and “norm-breaking” foreign policy. The halving of the trust gap between the US and China since 2024 is a compelling indicator of shifting geopolitical sentiments in Australia.