The ongoing energy talks between the United States and Russia, if they lead to a deal, could set a perilous precedent with far-reaching global implications. The move would signal that even the most robust sanctions regimes are negotiable.
A deal allowing a major US company like Exxon Mobil to re-enter a sanctioned Russian project would be closely watched by countries and corporations around the world. It would suggest that for the right price—be it a diplomatic concession or a strategic benefit—sanctions can be waived.
This could encourage other actors, both allied and adversarial, to test the boundaries of other sanctions regimes, whether against Iran, North Korea, or other states. It would undermine the idea of sanctions as a firm and principled stand, recasting them as mere bargaining chips.
The contrast with the hardline stance on India makes the precedent even more dangerous. It establishes a two-tiered system, where allies are held to a stricter standard than the adversaries the sanctions are meant to target, a dynamic that could unravel the very concept of collective economic pressure.