A new global economic health check has delivered a mixed verdict: the patient’s immediate vital signs are surprisingly strong, but the long-term prognosis is “dim.” A leading financial body has upgraded the world’s 2025 growth to 3.2%, citing “unexpected resilience,” but warns of serious underlying conditions that threaten future health.
The report suggests the resilience is symptomatic of a short-term adrenaline rush, not a true recovery. It was caused by a surge of spending as consumers and businesses reacted to the announcement of tariffs. This has masked the long-term damage that protectionist policies are inflicting on the global system’s arteries: trade and investment.
The United Kingdom is presented as a patient with its own specific ailment. Its growth is healthy for now (1.3%), but it is suffering from a chronic inflationary fever, with prices set to rise faster than in any other G7 country. This suggests a significant imbalance that requires careful treatment.
The long-term prognosis is further darkened by two other identified conditions. First, a move towards restrictive immigration policies is seen as a circulatory problem, restricting the flow of labor and leading to economic atrophy and inflationary hotspots. Second, “stretched valuations” in financial markets are described as a potential aneurysm—a weak spot that could burst and cause a sharp, systemic shock.
The prescription offered by the report is one of conservative treatment. Central banks are advised to be “very cautious” and avoid any drastic interventions, like premature interest rate cuts, until the patient’s long-term stability is more certain.