September’s record-breaking influx of new electric vehicles is set to create a significant ripple effect that will reshape the UK’s used EV market over the next few years. The 72,800 new battery EVs and 38,300 plug-in hybrids will eventually become the bedrock of a more mature and affordable second-hand electric car market.
Currently, the used EV market is constrained by a relative lack of supply, which has kept prices high. This surge in new registrations acts as a massive injection of future stock. In three to four years, when these vehicles typically come off their initial finance or lease agreements, they will enter the used market in large numbers. This increase in supply should, in theory, lead to more competitive pricing and greater choice for second-hand buyers.
The government grant’s specific targeting will have a pronounced effect. Because the subsidy is focused on models under £37,000, the future used market will be particularly well-stocked with these more affordable, mass-market models from brands like Nissan, Renault, and Vauxhall. This will be crucial for democratizing EV ownership beyond those who can afford to buy new.
However, there could be a challenge. The September boom was driven by a temporary grant. If this creates a sales “cliff-edge” when it ends, it could lead to a future dip in the supply of three-year-old models. This boom-and-bust cycle in the new market creates echoes and distortions in the used market years later.
The nearly-new market will also be affected. The significant discount on new grant-eligible cars could temporarily depress the value of one or two-year-old models, as the price gap between a new and a nearly-new vehicle narrows. In essence, the shockwave from September’s new car boom is only just beginning its journey, and its full impact will be felt in the used car lots of 2028 and beyond.