Risk management frameworks within Indian refineries evolved in 2025 to incorporate geopolitical supply disruption scenarios, moving beyond traditional commodity price risk. Data reveals that US crude imports to India surged by 65.6% to $8.2 billion during April-December 2025, while Russian crude imports contracted by more than 17%, falling from $40 billion to $33.1 billion year-on-year.
December 2025 procurement reflected evolved risk frameworks. Russian crude shipments to India totaled $2.71 billion, down 15.15% from $3.2 billion in December 2024, as refiners incorporated geopolitical disruption risk into procurement models. The sudden policy changes of 2025 demonstrated that geopolitical risk required explicit management.
Suppliers rated favorably in new risk frameworks expanded market share. Saudi Arabia’s 61% growth to $1.75 billion in December 2025 reflected low geopolitical disruption risk assessments. The United States’ 31% increase to $569.30 million benefited from supply reliability perceptions. Iraq and the UAE, contributing $2.37 billion and $1.65 billion respectively, maintained stable risk profiles.
Risk framework evolution accelerated following the US imposition of a 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods on August 27, 2025. This unexpected policy highlighted the need to model geopolitical risk explicitly. Refiners updated risk management systems to weight supplier reliability and geopolitical stability alongside traditional price volatility metrics. Russian crude imports declined from $3.62 billion in July 2025 to $2.71 billion in December 2025.
India’s total crude oil imports from all sources reached $11.29 billion in December 2025, up 9.1% from $10.34 billion in December 2024. Cumulative imports for April-December 2025 totaled $105.10 billion, compared to $109.33 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. The evolved risk frameworks demonstrate sophisticated supply chain management.