As the European Union and Israel head towards a major collision over sanctions, diplomats are quietly searching for an off-ramp that could avert a full-blown crisis. While public positions are hardened, the possibility of a last-minute compromise cannot be entirely ruled out.
A potential path to de-escalation would require significant concessions from Israel. This might include a verifiable and substantial increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza, a commitment to rein in settler violence in the West Bank, or a tangible move towards a long-term ceasefire. Such actions could provide a rationale for the more moderate EU states to argue for a suspension of the sanctions proposal.
The EU, for its part, might have to show flexibility. The proposal could be put on hold rather than being pushed to an immediate vote, giving time for a new diplomatic initiative to bear fruit. The threat of sanctions could be maintained as leverage, but their implementation could be made conditional on future developments on the ground.
The role of third-party mediators, particularly the United States, could be crucial. Washington has a strong interest in preventing a major rift between two of its closest allies. U.S. diplomacy could work behind the scenes to broker a face-saving solution for both sides.
However, the chasm between the two positions is vast. The EU is demanding a fundamental “change of course,” while Israel insists on its sovereign right to conduct its security policy. Finding a compromise that satisfies both sides without being seen as a capitulation will be an immense diplomatic challenge.